03 - 10 January 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (90th to 95th percentile) expected over eastern Burundi and northern and eastern regions of Tanzania.
Floods update
- High risk flash floods and flooding anticipated over Burundi and northern to eastern regions of Tanzania. The heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to worsen the flooding situation experienced over the flood-prone areas in these regions.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Burundi, eastern Rwanda, eastern and northern Tanzania, and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in western parts of Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) with isolated regions of cooler than average temperatures.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya and parts of southern Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya and parts of southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, and central to eastern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern Uganda, south-western Tanzania, south-western Ethiopia and coastal regions of Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan.
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern and eastern Kenya, and central to northern Uganda.
