04 - 11 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and eastern and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of central and southern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and central to southern regions of Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over northern Sudan, central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central Kenya, south-western Tanzania and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over isolated areas of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern and western Uganda, south-western Kenya, and north-western coastal regions of Somalia.
