05 - 12 Oct 2021
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected in most parts of the region, except in northern Sudan and south-eastern South Sudan and over localized areas within the Great Rift Valley region where temperatures are forecast to be colder than average.
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ are expected in most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, Uganda, and Tanzania.
- Relatively cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ are expected in central and northern Ethiopia, parts of central to western Kenya, and a few regions in south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and Burundi, and southern and northern Tanzania.
Headline: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in Upper Nile state in north-eastern South Sudan into parts of western Oromia and Afar in Ethiopia, parts of north-eastern Somalia, and south-western Uganda. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average except for northern Sudan and south-eastern South Sudan regions.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5% on record) is expected in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile states in South Sudan, eastern Oromia and Afar in Ethiopia, parts of northern Somalia, and south-western Uganda. Total rainfall above 100mm is expected in these regions.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in South Sudan, parts of central Ethiopia, central and south-western Uganda, northern Rwanda, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected over parts of southern Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, western and coastal Kenya, north-western and coastal Tanzania, northern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and northern Ethiopia.
- Dry conditions are expected in central to northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Somalia, and much of Tanzania.
Headline: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in Upper Nile state in north-eastern South Sudan into parts of western Oromia and Afar in Ethiopia, parts of north-eastern Somalia, and south-western Uganda. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average except for northern Sudan and south-eastern South Sudan regions.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5% on record) is expected in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile states in South Sudan, eastern Oromia and Afar in Ethiopia, parts of northern Somalia, and south-western Uganda. Total rainfall above 100 mm is expected in these regions.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in South Sudan, parts of central Ethiopia, central and south-western Uganda, northern Rwanda, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected over parts of southern Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, western and coastal Kenya, north-western and coastal Tanzania, northern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and northern Ethiopia.
- Dry conditions are expected in central to northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Somalia, and much of Tanzania.
