06 - 13 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over northern parts of Somalia, south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas across the border of south-eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia, central to western regions of Kenya, central Somalia and most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile expected over both northern parts of Somalia and south-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
Floods
- Flooding incidences are expected over some parts of northern Somalia and isolated areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over central to a few places in northern parts of Sudan, isolated areas in southern Sudan, western Eritrea, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200 mm) expected over isolated areas in both south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and northern parts of Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to southeastern parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia and isolated areas over western Uganda, western Kenya and southern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts of Southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central to northern regions of Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, central to western regions, north-eastern and coastal parts of Kenya, eastern and southern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to western parts of Uganda.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
