07 - 14 May 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (reaching top 5% on record) expected in central to eastern Ethiopia and parts of central and north-western Somalia.
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern parts of Ethiopia, central to southern and north-western Somalia and isolated areas in western South Sudan, central Uganda and western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Sudan, coastal and north-western Kenya, central to north-eastern Somalia and coastal Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over isolated areas in northern Kenya, and eastern Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over central to southern Sudan, northern South Sudan, and a few areas in Afar region and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over southern to central South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western and eastern Ethiopia and central to northern Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central to north-western and south-eastern Ethiopia Highlands, central Kenya, most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of South Sudan, Somalia, Sudan, and parts of eastern Kenya.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over central to southern Ethiopia, central to southern and north-western Somalia, most parts of Uganda, western South Sudan, and parts of central to western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in central to eastern South Sudan, south-eastern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, central to southern Eritrea, north-eastern Somalia, parts of Tanzania and north-eastern Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan, north-western and eastern Kenya, and central and southern parts of Tanzania.
