08 - 15 November 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected over a few places in northern Kenya and central and southern Somalia. Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan and central and southern Uganda. This may increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas, with a high risk anticipated over northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and parts of southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, northern Tanzania, and central to southern Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over southern Tanzania and north-eastern tip of Somalia. .
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over parts of north-eastern Kenya, south-eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected over a few places in central and northern Kenya and isolated areas in southern Somalia.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, south-eastern South Sudan, and central and southern Uganda.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, parts of eastern and northern Kenya, and south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and isolated areas in Tanzania and Sudan.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected over parts of central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and most coastal regions.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over northern Burundi, south-western Rwanda, isolated areas in southern Somalia and a few regions in western, central and northern Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Somalia, most parts of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, northern and western Tanzania, and western and southern South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in coastal and southern Sudan, central to northern South Sudan, western and southern Ethiopia, parts of central to northern Somalia, northwestern Kenya, and southern Tanzania.
- Dry conditions expected over Djibouti, Eritrea, parts of northern Somalia, northern and eastern Ethiopia, and central to northern Sudan.
