08 - 15 October 2024

Rainfall

Temperature

Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over northern Somalia and eastern  parts of Ethiopia. 
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over parts of southern Sudan, western, central and eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.  
  • Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, southern and western Uganda, central to eastern South Sudan, western, southern and north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.  
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. 
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern and southern Ethiopia.  
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda, and southern parts of Tanzania.  
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and parts of Eritrea, Afar region in Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia and eastern Kenya.  
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of south-western Sudan, western South Sudan, western and south-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and western Uganda.  
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts of northern and southern Tanzania, coastal and western Kenya, central to southern Somalia, northern and southern Ethiopia, most parts of Uganda, eastern Rwanda,  Burundi, and central to eastern South Sudan.