09 - 16 January 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (90th to 95th percentile) expected over eastern Burundi, with a few regions across northern and eastern Tanzania also experiencing similar conditions.
Floods update
- High-risk flash floods anticipated over eastern Burundi and a few regions across northern and eastern Tanzania as a result of the heavy to very heavy rainfall in the flood-prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected in Rwanda, Burundi, northern and eastern Tanzania, and south-western regions of Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in central to western Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), with isolated regions experiencing cooler than average temperatures.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, and parts of southern and eastern Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya, parts of southern Somalia, and eastern regions of South Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania, as well as a few regions in south-western Kenya and southern Uganda.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in southern Uganda, south-western Tanzania, western and southern Kenya, and coastal regions of Sudan, Eritrea, northern Somalia and Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, and central to southern Somalia.
