10 - 17 November 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, eastern parts of Burundi, southern and northern Ethiopia, southern parts of Somalia, eastern parts of Uganda, and a few areas in southeastern South Sudan and central Eritrea.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over northern to central Somalia, western parts of Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Kenya and northern and southern parts of Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over southern parts of Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, southern parts of Somalia, central parts of Tanzania, a few areas over eastern Burundi and central Rwanda.
Floods
- Flooding incidences are expected in some parts of southern parts of Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, southern parts of Somalia, central parts of Tanzania, a few areas over eastern parts of Burundi and central Rwanda.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most parts of Sudan, central parts of Tanzania and a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over western to northern parts of Sudan, central to northern parts of Ethiopia, central to western regions of Kenya, western regions of Rwanda and Burundi and a few areas over; central and southern Tanzania, south-western Uganda, and northern Somalia,
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over central to southern parts of Kenya, and isolated areas over eastern parts of Burundi, and central Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, western parts of Ethiopia and southern parts of Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Uganda, central parts of Eritrea, northern and eastern parts of Ethiopia, coastal regions of Somalia, north-western and southern parts of Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, eastern to southern parts of Sudan, central to southern parts of Somalia, parts of eastern, coastal and north-western Kenya, parts of north-eastern and south-western Ethiopia, and parts of southern Tanzania.
