10 - 17 October 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Ethiopia, northern and south-eastern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, and most parts of Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over a few regions in central to south-western South Sudan, western Uganda, western Kenya and northern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia into central to northern Somalia, parts of Uganda, Rwanda and isolated areas in Kenya.
Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over isolated regions in Afar region of Ethiopia and a few areas in eastern Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, northern and eastern Kenya.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and other isolated regions in Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in South Sudan, Sudan, coastal Eritrea, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy Rainfall (more than 200mm) expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia and isolated areas in northern Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, most parts of South Sudan, Somalia, parts of north-western Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in southern Sudan, Eritrea, parts of South Sudan, central Ethiopia, eastern and northern Tanzania and most parts of eastern, southern and northern Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, and parts of northern Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.
