10 - 17 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Rwanda, western and northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in southern Sudan, northern Somalia and southern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern regions of South Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over northern parts of South Sudan as well as north-western Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central and north-eastern South Sudan, pockets in central-eastern Sudan, and north-western parts of Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and parts of the coastal regions along the Red Sea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, and eastern and western regions of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya and parts of central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over northern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia and southern Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central Sudan, coastal regions along the Red Sea, north-eastern Ethiopia, Rwanda and coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania.
