13 - 20 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over northern to central parts of Somalia, western, central to south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and isolated areas over north-western parts of South Sudan and southern parts of Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few areas in northern parts of Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi and parts of northern and eastern parts of Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile expected over northern to central parts of Somalia and south-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of central to northern Somalia and areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature 13 - 20 October 2026
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over central parts of Sudan, isolated areas in western Eritrea and in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200 mm) expected over isolated areas in western and south-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to southern parts of Ethiopia, northern to central parts of Somalia, central to western Uganda and western South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western regions, north-eastern and coastal parts of Kenya, eastern and western Tanzania, most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern parts of Uganda.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of north-eastern Ethiopia and some parts of southern Tanzania.
