14 - 21 November 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected over a few places in northern Kenya and central and southern Somalia. Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan and central and southern Uganda. This may increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas, with a high risk anticipated over northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected over a few places in northern Kenya and central and southern Somalia. Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, south-eastern South Sudan, and central and southern Uganda. This may increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas, with a high risk anticipated over northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, northern Kenya, Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, and north-western and southern Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over central to northern Tanzania, and southern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over parts of central Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, northern Kenya, and a few regions in south-western Ethiopia.
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected over cross-border regions of northern Kenya to south-eastern Somalia and south-eastern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and north-western Kenya..
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of central to northern Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, Djibouti, central to north-western Uganda, north-western Tanzania, and coastal regions of Sudan and Eritrea.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, parts of eastern and northern Kenya, south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of southern and eastern Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western Sudan, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and isolated areas in Tanzania and Sudan.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected over parts of central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and most coastal regions.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected in north-western Tanzania, central and north-western Uganda, central to north-eastern Kenya, and south-western Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern and southern Tanzania, southern and north-western Somalia into Djibouti, southern Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, and most parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in central to northern South Sudan, coastal regions of Sudan and Eritrea, Djibouti, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and parts of northern Somalia, north-western Kenya, and central Tanzania..
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan and southern and north-western regions of Eritrea.
