14 - 21 March 2023



Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies 

  • Warmer than usual temperatures expected in most parts of Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia and most parts of Tanzania.
  • Cooler than usual temperatures expected over Uganda, southern South Sudan, parts of western Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Drier than usual conditions expected over eastern and western parts of Tanzania and south-eastern Kenya.
  • Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, southern and north-western Somalia, southern South Sudan, and central to northern Tanzania.
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Very heavy (top 5%) rainfall expected over north-eastern and southern parts of Ethiopia, northern Kenya and south-western parts of Uganda.
  • Heavy (top 10%) rainfall expected over eastern parts of Rwanda, and isolated areas in Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, Uganda, eastern Burundi and Rwanda, and Tanzania.
  • Mild conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western Tanzania, most parts of Uganda, parts of southern to central Ethiopia, western and central to northern Kenya.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern Ethiopia, central to southern South Sudan, north-eastern Uganda, north-western and central to southern Somalia, and eastern areas in Kenya.
  • Dry conditions expected over Sudan, northern South Sudan, most parts of Eritrea, central to north-eastern Somalia, south-eastern Kenya and eastern Tanzania.