15-22 September



Heavy rainfall
  • Very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected in parts of north-eastern Somalia, and few places in central Ethiopia.
  • Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) is expected in southern parts of Sudan, and parts of central Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
  • Heavy rainfall above 200 mm expected in a few places in western and central Ethiopia.
  • Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in south-western Sudan, north-western to south-western South Sudan, western and parts of central Ethiopia, parts of north-eastern Somalia, north-western Uganda, and western Kenya.
  • Light rainfall less than 50 mm is expected in parts of central Sudan, north-western Eritrea, parts of northern, eastern and southern Ethiopia, western and central South Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, coastal parts of Djibouti, parts of central and eastern Uganda, southern and eastern Kenya, and eastern parts of Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions are expected in much of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Uganda, parts of eastern to north-western Kenya, south-eastern South Sudan, parts of south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, and northern Sudan.
Temperature forecast
  • High daily-mean temperatures above 32oC are expected in northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, parts of north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and regions in north-western coast of Somalia.
  • Moderate daily-mean temperatures between 20-32oC are expected over southern Sudan, South Sudan, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, north-western and eastern Kenya, much of Uganda, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, and western and eastern Tanzania.
  • Low daily-mean temperatures below 20oC are expected over much of southern to northern Ethiopia, parts of central to western Kenya, parts of southern Uganda, western Rwanda, western Burundi, and parts of central to southern Tanzania.