15 - 22 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to northern regions of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central Somalia and parts of western Kenya, central and northern Uganda.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of eastern Kenya, western and eastern Tanzania, south-eastern South Sudan, and north-western Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over south-eastern Ethiopia and other isolated areas across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over cross-border regions of south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia and parts of north-eastern Kenya.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern and central-southern Ethiopia and central Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and parts of western regions of Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern regions of South Sudan, eastern Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Uganda, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central Somalia and parts of western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and western Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, northern Somalia, south-eastern South Sudan and southern regions of Sudan.
