16 - 23 July 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central and north-western Kenya, most parts of Uganda, central to western Ethiopia, central to eastern South Sudan, and western Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over eastern Eritrea, northeastern Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, and western South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over Sudan, central to western South Sudan, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over isolated areas in western Ethiopia and eastern South Sudan, and the peaks of mountainous areas.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over north-western Kenya, parts of central to eastern South Sudan, most parts of western Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in western Sudan, western Ethiopia, and north-central South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, the Red Sea coastal regions, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Somalia, eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, and western and eastern Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to south-western Kenya, and central to western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, parts of the Red Sea coast, coastal Eritrea and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central Ethiopia, central parts of South Sudan, and western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in southern and western Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern and southern Somalia, Rwanda, coastal Kenya and areas in southern and northern Tanzania.
