16 - 23 October 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over parts of northern Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and southern and northern Uganda.
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Somalia, south-western and eastern Ethiopia, south-western Sudan, north-western South Sudan and western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, northern and eastern Tanzania and central to northern South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern and southern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda, and southern parts of Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels Cautionary heat stress levels expected in most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and parts of Eritrea, Afar region in Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and north-western and eastern Kenya.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, parts of southern and eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts of south-western Sudan, central to northern and southern Ethiopia, central to southern Eritrea, central to southern Somalia, north-western Tanzania, western and coastal Kenya and most parts of South Sudan and Djibouti.
