17 - 24 March 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, western Ethiopia, northern Tanzania and central and western parts of Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern and eastern parts of Tanzania, most parts of Burundi and localised areas in eastern Kenya.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over a few places in northern Tanzania, central Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
- Most of the places in northern Tanzania, central Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the highland regions across the GHA and parts of central to eastern South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over southern parts of Sudan and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya, southern Tanzania and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Extreme Caution category expected over most parts of South Sudan, eastern areas of Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and south-western parts of Somalia, and southern regions of Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, central and northern Tanzania, south-western Ethiopia, south-western and north-eastern parts of South Sudan as well as central and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to eastern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, southern and northern parts of Somalia, central to western parts of Eritrea, central to northern Ethiopia, southern parts of Sudan and north-western and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
