17 - 24 October 2023
Rainfall
Temperature

Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, parts of Rwanda and Burundi, western Tanzania, part of western and northern eastern Kenya, and central Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over a few regions in central Ethiopia, northwestern and southern Somalia, most parts of Kenya, and northern to eastern Tanzania.

Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in parts of western and south-eastern Ethiopia extending into parts of central Somalia, northern and southern parts of Uganda, isolated areas in northern Kenya and South Sudan.

Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over isolated regions in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern Burundi and Rwanda, Uganda, most parts of Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, south-eastern and parts of northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and other isolated regions in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.

Heat Stress
- Heat exhaustion is forecast over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, eastern Kenya and southern parts of Tanzania. Individuals are encouraged to stay hydrated during this time.

Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Burundi, Rwanda, north-western Tanzania, Uganda, western and northeastern Kenya, South Sudan, central and southern Somalia, and parts of western and southern Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in southern and north-eastern Sudan, Eritrea, northwestern and parts of central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, eastern Tanzania, and most parts of eastern, southern and northern Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, northeastern to eastern Ethiopia, north-western and eastern Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.