17 - 24 October 2023

Rainfall

Temperature

Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, parts of Rwanda and Burundi, western Tanzania, part of western and northern eastern Kenya, and central Somalia.
  • Drier than usual conditions expected over a few regions in central Ethiopia, northwestern and southern Somalia, most parts of Kenya, and northern to eastern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in parts of western and south-eastern Ethiopia extending into parts of central Somalia, northern and southern parts of Uganda, isolated areas in northern Kenya and South Sudan.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over isolated regions in Afar region of Ethiopia.
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern Burundi and Rwanda, Uganda, most parts of Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, south-eastern and parts of northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and other isolated regions in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Heat exhaustion is forecast over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, eastern Kenya and southern parts of Tanzania. Individuals are encouraged to stay hydrated during this time. 
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Burundi, Rwanda, north-western Tanzania, Uganda, western and northeastern Kenya, South Sudan, central and southern Somalia, and parts of western and southern Ethiopia.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in southern and north-eastern Sudan, Eritrea, northwestern and parts of central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, eastern Tanzania, and most parts of eastern, southern and northern Kenya.
  • Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, northeastern to eastern Ethiopia, north-western and eastern Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.