19 - 26 December 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
- Heavy rainfall is anticipated in central parts of Tanzania, Burundi, and southern parts of Rwanda. This is likely to worsen the flooding situation experienced over isolated flood-prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to eastern Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over western and eastern parts of Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in parts of central Burundi and central to southern Tanzania.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over southern and eastern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, and eastern regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, northern to central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, eastern South Sudan, south-eastern Sudan, and central to southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over a few places in central Burundi and southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of coastal Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, southern to western Uganda, central to southern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, and northern and southern regions of Somalia.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern Uganda, northern Kenya, central Somalia, and most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia.
