21 - 28 June 2022



Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies 

  • Warmer than average temperatures expected in most parts of the region except some areas of eastern South Sudan where cooler than average temperatures are expected.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than average conditions expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and central Kenya.
  • Drier than average conditions predicted over parts of southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, central Uganda, and western Kenya.
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over eastern and western parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, and parts of central Kenya.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperature

  • Hot conditions (above 32 ℃) expected over central and eastern Sudan, Afar region in north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, and north western coastal Somalia.
  • Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over southern, western and coastal Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, and parts of western and eastern Tanzania.
  • Cold conditions (less than 20℃) expected in parts of central to southern Ethiopia, central to south western Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and much of Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) predicted over parts of South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over South Sudan, southern Sudan, western Ethiopia and parts of northern Uganda and western Kenya.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central Sudan, north-western Eritrea, parts of eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern, central and southern Somalia, much of Uganda, western, central and coastal Kenya, and coastal and southern Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, north-eastern Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and central to western Tanzania.