22 - 29 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western regions of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, northern Somalia, parts of western Kenya, central to eastern Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to eastern Kenya, western Uganda, most parts of Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over a few regions in western and south-eastern South Sudan and other isolated areas across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over northern Somalia, parts of Rwanda, southern Ethiopia and parts of Uganda.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern Somalia, central parts of southern Ethiopia, western Rwanda, isolated areas in western South Sudan, and pockets of central Kenya.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and parts of western regions of Burundi, and Rwanda.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in northern regions of South Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over parts of northern Somalia and isolated areas in western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia and western Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, central to western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, northern Somalia and parts of western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya, central to southern Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan and southern regions of Sudan.
