23 - 30 January 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (90th to 95th percentiles) expected over parts of central to north-eastern Tanzania into southern Kenya.
Floods update
- High risk flash floods and flooding anticipated in parts of central to northeastern Tanzania and southern Kenya. The moderate to very heavy rainfall is likely to worsen the flooding situation experienced over the flood-prone areas in these regions.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected in central to northern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, and central to southern Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in western and southern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Cooler than average temperatures in most parts of Sudan and northern South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, and eastern and northern Kenya.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to western Kenya, western Rwanda, and Burundi, central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and most parts of Sudan.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern regions of South Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Tanzania, and southern Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in southern Uganda, Rwanda, central and coastal Kenya, and coastal regions of Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, north-western and north-eastern Kenya, and western and eastern Ethiopia, as well as Somalia.
