24 February - 03 March 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of eastern, central and southern Tanzania and central to southern parts of Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Tanzania, most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and southern Uganda.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over central-southern parts of Kenya and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the central-southern parts of Kenya and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, over the highlands of Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category over eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and central-southern parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of northern Tanzania, and parts of southern Uganda, central to southern Kenya, southern and northern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and coastal regions of Eritrea.
