25 July - 01 August 2023

Rainfall anomalies

Wetter than usual conditions expected over western and northern parts of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of South Sudan, eastern and southern parts of Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Kenya.
Drier than usual conditions expected over western to central Sudan, north-western South Sudan, isolated areas in western and central Ethiopia, and the northern shores of Lake Victoria.

Temperature anomalies

Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Cooler than usual temperatures expected in isolated areas in northern Somalia, central Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan and central Kenya.

Exceptional rainfall

Extremely heavy rainfall expected in isolated areas of Afar region of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in southern and eastern Sudan
Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) expected in much of central to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of southern Sudan, and much of South Sudan except for western and southeastern parts.

Mean temperatures

Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal regions of Eritrea, and north-western coastal parts of Somalia.
Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, north-western and eastern Tanzania, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, and much of Uganda.
Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, isolated areas in southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, parts of southern, western, central to northern Tanzania, and central to south western Kenya.

Total rainfall

Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over isolated parts in central and north-western Ethiopia, northern and central South Sudan, and south-western Sudan.
Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern and eastern Sudan, much of South Sudan, western Eritrea, northern to central Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and isolated areas in western Kenya.
Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central and western Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, parts of central to eastern Ethiopia, parts of coastal Eritrea, northern and southern Somalia, Djibouti, eastern and southern Tanzania, coastal and western Kenya, and central to south-western Uganda.
Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, central Somalia, much of Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and most parts of Tanzania.