26 August - 02 September 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over isolated parts of western to northern Ethiopia, isolated parts of western Eritrea and isolated parts of both western Sudan and South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central regions of Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas over northern coastal Somalia, most parts of Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile percentile expected over parts of south-western Sudan and isolated areas in both western and northern Ethiopia.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-western Sudan and isolated areas in both western and northern Ethiopia
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over isolated parts of western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southwestern parts of Sudan, western parts of South Sudan, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, central to western regions and coastal parts of Kenya, central to northern parts of Uganda, southern and northern coastal parts of Somalia, central regions of Sudan, eastern parts of South Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
