27 August - 03 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, central to north-eastern South Sudan, western Eritrea, and central to northern Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to southern Uganda, and a few regions over western South Sudan, western and southern Ethiopia, and south-western Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, western regions of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and most parts of Uganda and Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over regions in southern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopian, and other isolated regions across the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over southern Sudan, northern regions of South Sudan, western regions of Eritrea and northern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central to southern Sudan, north-eastern parts of South Sudan, and western Eritrea.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in northern Sudan and regions within the Red Sea coastal regions.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and western and southern parts of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, western Kenya, central Tanzania, southern Uganda and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal regions along the Red Sea.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected in southern regions of Sudan into north-eastern parts of South Sudan, and few areas of central to western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, western Eritrea, northern Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central Uganda, coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Eritrea, and parts of central Sudan.
