27 August - 03 September 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over most parts of southern Sudan, Eritrea, and northern Ethiopia.
Floods Update
- The expected very heavy rainfall over few places in parts of southern Sudan, Eritrea, and northern Ethiopia is likely to lead to floods.
- Communities in the areas at risk are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, northern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, south-western South Sudan, eastern Kenya and southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of south-western Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, north-western and eastern South Sudan and Lake Victoria Basin region in Uganda and Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few regions in central Sudan, northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, parts of Djibouti and northern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over parts of northern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, coastal regions of Eritrea and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, northern and eastern Kenya, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, and western and eastern Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, central Tanzania and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in northern Sudan, and regions in vicinity of the Red Sea coastline.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated parts of southern Sudan, north-western Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over northern Uganda, western Kenya, northern and southern Somalia, part of Djibouti, southern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and most parts of Eritrea and South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in Rwanda, parts of Djibouti, central to northern Sudan, central to southern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, eastern and southern Tanzania, southern, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and most parts of Somalia.
