27 December 2023 - 03 January 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- Drier than usual conditions expected in most western and coastal Tanzania, while regions in central to northern Tanzania and coastal to eastern Kenya are expected to experience more than usual rainfall.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over southern and eastern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya and eastern regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, northern to central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress likely in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya, eastern South Sudan and parts of southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi and Tanzania, and parts of coastal Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in Rwanda, southern and central Uganda, eastern and southern Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of South Sudan, northern Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan.
