27 June - 04 July 2023

Rainfall anomalies

Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and eastern South Sudan, southern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and parts of western Eritrea.
Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of central to southern Sudan, eastern Uganda, and other isolated areas in central Ethiopia and western South Sudan.

Temperature anomalies

Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Cooler than usual temperatures expected in parts of north-eastern Somalia and other isolated regions across the GHA.

Exceptional rainfall

Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) expected in cross-border regions of north-western Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Sudan, southern Sudan, and northern South Sudan.

Mean temperatures

Hot conditions (above 32℃) expected over central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal regions of Eritrea, and north-western Somalia.
Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) expected over South Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, eastern and western Tanzania, and central to northern Uganda.
Mild conditions (less than 20℃) expected over the Ethiopian highlands, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, central to south-western Kenya, and northern to southern Tanzania.

Total rainfall

Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over a few areas of western Ethiopia, northern South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Sudan, and central to western Ethiopia.
Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern to southern Tanzania, coastal and western Kenya, most parts of Uganda, southern and northern Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, central to eastern Ethiopia, south-eastern South Sudan, and central Sudan.
Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, central to western Tanzania, central to northern Kenya, central to northern Somalia, and south-eastern parts of Ethiopia.