28 Sep - 05 Oct 2021
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected in most parts of the region, except in northern Sudan and over localized areas in the rift valley region where temperatures are forecast to be colder than average.
- Warm temperatures above 32℃ are expected in isolated regions in Sudan and Afar in Ethiopia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ are expected in most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, Uganda, and Tanzania.
- Relatively cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ are expected in central Ethiopia, parts of central to western Kenya, south-western regions of Uganda, western Rwanda, Burundi, and a few regions in southern and northern Tanzania.
Headline: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in north-eastern South Sudan, western to eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in most regions.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10 - 5% on record) is expected in border regions of Jonglei and Upper Nile states in South Sudan; southern Benishangul Gumuz, western and eastern Oromia, and parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNP) region in Ethiopia; and Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer, and Bari in northern Somalia. Total rainfall above 100 mm is expected in these regions.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in central and western South Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Ethiopia, and north-eastern Somalia.
- Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected over southern Sudan, parts of northern and south-eastern South Sudan, eastern Uganda into western Kenya, and coastal regions of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Dry conditions are expected in central and northern Sudan, the Afar region of Ethiopia, most of Eritrea, eastern and northern Kenya, and western and southern Tanzania.
Headline: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in north-eastern South Sudan, western to eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in most regions.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10 - 5% on record) is expected in border regions of Jonglei and Upper Nile states in South Sudan; southern Benishangul Gumuz, western and eastern Oromia, and parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNP) region in Ethiopia; and Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer, and Bari in northern Somalia. Total rainfall above 100 mm is expected in these regions.
- Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in central and western South Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Ethiopia, and north-eastern Somalia.
- Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected over southern Sudan, parts of northern and south-eastern South Sudan, eastern Uganda into western Kenya, and coastal regions of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Dry conditions are expected in central and northern Sudan, the Afar region of Ethiopia, most of Eritrea, eastern and northern Kenya, and western and southern Tanzania.
