28 February - 06 March 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (reaching the 95th percentile) expected in parts of central to northern Tanzania and most parts of Burundi.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of central to northern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, southern regions of South Sudan, central to south-western Ethiopia, and parts of south-western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in western and south-western border regions of Tanzania.
- n Burundi and central Tanzania, the expected moderate to heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood-prone areas.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over parts of eastern South Sudan spanning to south-western Ethiopia, and north-western Kenya.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, western and eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern Burundi, eastern Rwanda and Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and most parts of South Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of central to southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in eastern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, southern South Sudan, southern Somalia and central Ethiopia.
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, central to northern South Sudan, western and southern Eritrea, Djibouti, western and eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, and central to northern Kenya.
