28 November - 05 December 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
- Riverine and flash floods were observed over parts of Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia in the past week. Given the heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast in the coming week over parts of Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania, stakeholders over these countries are advised to be on alert.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, northern and southern regions of Somalia, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, central to southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, southern South Sudan and parts of western and eastern Ethiopia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over central to southern Kenya, and northern and western Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over isolated regions across the GHA.
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in northern Somalia, central to northern Tanzania and eastern regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of southern to north-eastern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Djibouti and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, northern to central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as regions in northern and eastern South Sudan and south-eastern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected in isolated regions of Burundi and Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western and southern Uganda, isolated areas in southern South Sudan, parts of northern and southern Somalia, isolated areas in western and eastern Ethiopia, south-western Kenya and most parts of Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central to southern South Sudan, southern Ethiopia and most parts of Kenya and Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over central to south-eastern Kenya, and northern, western and coastal Tanzania.
