28 October - 04 November 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, southern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia, northern and western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya and central Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia and north-western Kenya.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over most parts of Rwanda and cross-border regions of southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, western and northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern Uganda, and most parts of Rwanda.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over western regions of Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda, and parts of central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, south-eastern Tanzania, central and eastern South Sudan, south-eastern Sudan, and coastal regions of Eritrea.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected over parts of western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia and western Rwanda.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, western and northern Kenya, and southern regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, central to eastern Tanzania, central South Sudan, central and south-eastern Ethiopia and parts of central to north-western Eritrea.
