28 September - 05 October 2022

Rainfall

Temperature

Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies 

  • Warmer than usual temperatures expected in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), especially over Eritrea and northern regions of Sudan and Ethiopia.
  • Colder than usual temperatures predicted over parts of eastern Kenya, coastal and southern Tanzania, and other areas across the region.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, western Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
  • Drier than usual conditions predicted over Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and central to southern Ethiopia.
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over parts of northern Somalia and western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Hot conditions (above 32 ℃) expected over parts of central Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
  • Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, central to northern Uganda, and most parts of Tanzania.
  • Cold conditions (less than 20℃) expected in central to western Ethiopia, parts of central to western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, parts of north-eastern to southern Tanzania, and southern Uganda.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Sudan, western South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Uganda, and a few parts of central to western Kenya.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, central to eastern Ethiopia, most parts of Somalia, Rwanda, western and southern Kenya, eastern Uganda, and northern and coastal regions of Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, northern and eastern Kenya, most parts of Tanzania and cross border regions of southern Ethiopia and Somalia.