30 July - 06 August 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of southern Sudan, central to western South Sudan, western Eritrea, and central to northern Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of central and western Uganda, eastern South Sudan, western Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, western Kenya, and northern Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of southern Sudan, central Somalia, and other isolated areas across the region.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of southern Sudan, western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, and central to western South Sudan.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in north-eastern Ethiopia and western Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected over parts of northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and regions along the Red Sea coast.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Somalia, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of eastern and western Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania, and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of Afar region in Ethiopia, coastal regions along the Red Sea and parts of northern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of south-western and southern parts of Sudan and central Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, southern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over Djibouti, central to northern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, central and coastal regions of Kenya, and southern and eastern Tanzania.
