30 January - 06 February 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (90th to 95th percentiles) expected over eastern to southern Tanzania.
Floods update
- Moderate to very heavy rainfall is likely to cause flash floods in the flood-prone areas in most parts of eastern to southern Tanzania, and light rainfall is expected across Rwanda, Uganda, and southern Kenya.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected in Burundi, most parts of Tanzania, south-western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in a few regions in western and southern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and central to western Tanzania.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected in most parts of Sudan, northern South Sudan, and parts of southern Tanzania.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Djibouti, western and south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and eastern and northern Kenya.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and most parts of Sudan.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern South Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in Uganda, Rwanda, western and southern Kenya, and south-western and northern Ethiopia.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan, South Sudan, northern Kenya, western and eastern Ethiopia, and Somalia.
