31 October - 07 November 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern Sudan, Uganda, most parts of Kenya, Burundi, parts of Rwanda, north-western and highlands over Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over a few regions in southern Kenya and central Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted Sudan, Eritrea, most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, central to southern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over northern Kenya into southern Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan into western Ethiopia.
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected in parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia into southern Somalia.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in most parts of Kenya, central to southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, south-east South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and northern parts of Tanzania.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern Burundi and Rwanda, Uganda, most parts of Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, south-eastern and parts of northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and other isolated regions in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Heat exhaustion expected over parts of Sudan, Eritrea, South Sudan, southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern parts of Tanzania. It is advisable for individuals to maintain proper hydration during this period.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over southern Somalia, and isolated areas in southern Ethiopia, Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over central to southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, central to southern Somalia, Uganda, most parts of Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, north-western and eastern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in southern Sudan, central to northern Somalia, central to northern Ethiopia, and central parts of Tanzania.
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern Somalia and southern Tanzania..
