Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
05 - 12 November 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, western and northern Tanzania western Rwanda and eastern Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central Kenya, parts of eastern Uganda, northern and southern Tanzania and central to southern Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few regions south-western Ethiopia, coastal areas of Somalia and isolated areas over the region.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over northern Somalia, parts of Rwanda, southern Ethiopia and parts of Uganda.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, eastern Ethiopia and eastern parts of both Rwanda and Uganda.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and parts of western regions of both Burundi, and Rwanda.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of South Sudan and coastal Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in Rwanda, Burundi, western Tanzania, south-western and central Uganda, parts of central and western Kenya, parts of southern South Sudan and southern Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern Tanzania, most parts of eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, and southern South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected over northern parts of Somalia.
- Light rainfall expected over southern and central regions of Somalia.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of Sudan.
Heavy rainfall
- · Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over areas in southern and eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over southeastern regions of South Sudan, and highland areas of Kenya and Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central Ethiopia as well as south-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, central to western South Sudan, southern Sudan, …
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern Somalia, central-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and pockets in central-southern South Sudan.