Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
20 - 27 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western and northern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and isolated areas in Kenya and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to south-western Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, and isolated areas in central Kenya.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of central Somalia, areas in south-eastern Ethiopia, and south-western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over north-western parts of Sudan and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over a small area in south eastern part of Sudan and in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central Tanzania, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to western parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in central Kenya and north-western Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya and Somalia, eastern Uganda, eastern and north-western Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of north-eastern Ethiopia and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, isolated parts of western Eritrea and isolated parts of southern Somalia.
- Less …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within …
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall expected over isolated areas in northern Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall expected over a few places in both southern and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia.
Floods update
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-western Sudan and isolated areas in north-western Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Heavy rainfall
Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over isolated areas of the following parts; southern Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, western to northern Ethiopia and in northern parts of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
Total Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over isolated parts of western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southwestern parts of Sudan, parts of western South Sudan, isolated areas in both northern …