Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
20 - 27 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western and northern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and isolated areas in Kenya and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to south-western Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, and isolated areas in central Kenya.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of central Somalia, areas in south-eastern Ethiopia, and south-western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over north-western parts of Sudan and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over a small area in south eastern part of Sudan and in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central Tanzania, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to western parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in central Kenya and north-western Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya and Somalia, eastern Uganda, eastern and north-western Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of north-eastern Ethiopia and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Floods update
- There is a likelihood of flash flood incidents over north-western and central parts of South Sudan, and few pockets in western Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall ( greater than 200mm) expected in parts of north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western parts of both Kenya …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia, and parts of southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda and parts of …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Ethiopia, southern Sudan, coastal areas of southern Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania, central parts of Tanzania, and Rwanda.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western Ethiopia, north-eastern and western South Sudan South-eastern Sudan and isolated areas in western Kenya and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of …