Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
30 September - 07 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, northern Burundi, Rwanda, parts of northern Somalia and western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern Ethiopia and central to southern Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern and northern regions of South Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over areas in central to northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Somalia and central to northern Uganda.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in north-central Uganda, central to north-central parts of South Sudan, and pockets in western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of central to eastern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of central to northern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Uganda, northern Burundi, western Kenya, South Sudan, western Kenya and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of southern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, southern and eastern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and coastal regions of Eritrea, Somalia and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over central to northern Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia and other regions across the GHA.
Floods update
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 5% on record) expected in parts of central to western Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti and central and north-western Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in north-eastern and southern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over central and north-western regions.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over cross border regions of Sudan and South Sudan, and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature …