Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
30 September - 07 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, northern Burundi, Rwanda, parts of northern Somalia and western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern Ethiopia and central to southern Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over eastern and northern regions of South Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over areas in central to northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Somalia and central to northern Uganda.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in north-central Uganda, central to north-central parts of South Sudan, and pockets in western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and most parts of central to eastern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of central to northern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Uganda, northern Burundi, western Kenya, South Sudan, western Kenya and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of southern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, southern and eastern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of central to western Kenya, central to northern Uganda, southern and eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti and central and north-western Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over …
Floods update
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and coastal regions of Eritrea, Somalia and Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over parts of central to western Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, central …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual conditions predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual conditions forecast over regions southern Ethiopia, and other few regions across the GHA.
Floods update
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.