Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
20 - 27 October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western and northern parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and isolated areas in Kenya and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to south-western Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, south-western Uganda, and isolated areas in central Kenya.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of central Somalia, areas in south-eastern Ethiopia, and south-western Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over north-western parts of Sudan and few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over a small area in south eastern part of Sudan and in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central Tanzania, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over central to western parts of South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in central Kenya and north-western Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya and Somalia, eastern Uganda, eastern and north-western Tanzania.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya, some parts of north-eastern Ethiopia and some parts of southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, southern Somalia, western regions of Rwanda and Burundi, most parts of South Sudan, southern Sudan, and western Ethiopia. …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, eastern Kenya, and other isolated areas across the GHA.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected over parts of eastern and northern South Sudan, and southern and south-eastern regions of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the Greater Horn …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected over most parts of Somalia.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
