Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
07 - 14 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of northern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan and south-western Sudan, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Somalia, southern Uganda and western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures eexpected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over northern Sudan and regions within the Great Rift Valley.
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern and pockets in central-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, parts of northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over a few parts of southern Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of northern and southern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, western and central Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, western South Sudan and south-western Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Burundi, central Somalia, Eritrea, and south-eastern regions of both Sudan and South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Dry conditions expected over most parts Somalia with light rainfall in some coastal regions.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (exceeding 90th percentile) expected over parts of Burundi and central to southern Tanzania.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and most parts of South Sudan.
Floods update
The moderate to heavy rainfall expected in central to southern regions of Tanzania is likely to cause flash floods in the flood-prone areas.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the whole country, with temperatures above 32 ℃ on south-eastern regions.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in Uganda, southern South Sudan, central Ethiopia, western, and coastal Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected …