Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, south-eastern Sudan and parts of central to western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in Somalia, southeastern …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, Djibouti, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of Eritrea and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over a few regions in north-eastern South Sudan, a few regions in western Ethiopia and other isolated …
Floods update
Floods Update
- Heavy Rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood-prone areas.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in northern areas of South Sudan, parts of central to southern coastal Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern to central Sudan, eastern Kenya and north-eastern Ethiopia.