Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected in central to southern parts of the country, with light rainfall amounts in the northern regions.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over cross border regions of Sudan and South Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 5% on record) expected in parts of central to southern Ethiopia and northern and western Kenya.
- Heavy rainfall (reaching top 10% on record) expected over southern Somalia, …
Floods update
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, southern Somalia, northern and western Kenya, Rwanda and northern and central to southern Uganda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over eastern parts of …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over parts of central to western Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, central …