Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
07 - 14 October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of northern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan and south-western Sudan, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Somalia, southern Uganda and western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures eexpected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected over northern Sudan and regions within the Great Rift Valley.
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) expected over south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in south-eastern and pockets in central-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, parts of northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over a few parts of southern Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of northern and southern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, western and central Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, western South Sudan and south-western Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of eastern and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Burundi, central Somalia, Eritrea, and south-eastern regions of both Sudan and South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), with isolated regions experiencing cooler than average temperatures.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, and parts of southern and eastern Sudan.
- Mild temperature …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (90th to 95th percentile) expected over eastern Burundi, with a few regions across northern and eastern Tanzania also experiencing similar conditions.
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya, parts of southern Somalia, and eastern regions of South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected in Rwanda, Burundi, northern and eastern Tanzania, and south-western regions of Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in central to western Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Burundi, eastern Rwanda, eastern and northern Tanzania, and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected in western parts of Tanzania.