Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, south-western Kenya, central to western Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected in parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- Most of the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern and southern Tanzania, are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of south-western Tanzania, parts of western Kenya and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, southern and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category expected over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda and southern parts of South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over northern to northeastern and southeastern South Sudan.
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the region with exception of isolated areas in central Ethiopia and central Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected over central to southern parts of the country.
- Light rainfall expected in most parts of the country.
- Dry conditions expected over northern regions of South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern-eastern parts of Somalia, with light rainfall in southern and northern regions.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over few areas in southern Tanzania
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, western parts of Uganda, central and few places over …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (reaching 90th percentile) expected in parts of central Kenya and north-western and southern Tanzania.