Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
31 March - 07 April 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most of southern Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, western and northern parts of South Sudan into southern parts of Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, as well as a few regions in south-western Somalia and southern parts of South Sudan.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of southern Tanzania and isolated areas in central to southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas over southern and north-eastern Ethiopia and central to north-western Rwanda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most highland regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of central to eastern South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of south-western Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Danger category expected over the northern regions of South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan, as well as eastern parts of both Tanzania, Kenya and south-western parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of southern Tanzania, southern Ethiopia and western regions of South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Kenya, South Sudan, eastern Rwanda, parts of Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, southern and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan and western Uganda.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Moderate rainfall expected in central to southern parts of the country, with light rainfall amounts in the northern regions.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 5% on record) expected in parts of central to southern Ethiopia and northern and western Kenya.
- Heavy rainfall (reaching top 10% on record) expected over southern Somalia, …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual conditions predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual conditions forecast over regions southern Ethiopia, and other few regions across the GHA.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern and north-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the rest of the country.
Floods update
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.